Fall Better Than Summer!
Inventory eased slightly in August, average price slipped under the $1 million mark, and the next two and a half months are going to tell us a lot more than the summer numbers ever could. Fall is always better than summer in real estate terms.
Active inventory across the GTA dipped 2.1% in August. Don’t read too much into that on its own — supply is still sitting at historically high levels, and one month of softening doesn’t undo that. What is worth flagging: the average sale price has now fallen below $1 million. That’s a psychological line as much as a financial one, and it tends to pull buyers off the sidelines who’ve been waiting for exactly this kind of affordability signal.
Why Rates Matter More Than Usual Right Now
The trade war between the U.S. and Canada is still very much in effect, with no near-term resolution in sight. That’s going to keep pressure on interest rates in the coming months — our expectation is a 25 basis point increase to the overnight lending rate.
Here’s the part buyers should actually sit with: if values hold steady through year-end and into next year, today’s carrying costs relative to purchase price may be about as good as it gets. A rate increase later doesn’t just make borrowing more expensive — it can make today’s market, prices included, look like the better entry point in hindsight. We’re not calling a bottom on price. We’re saying the affordability math right now, on a carrying-cost basis, deserves a second look before it changes.
Take Summer Stats With a Grain of Salt
Summer is always quiet, and we hold these numbers loosely for that reason. The real signal comes from what happens over the next 2.5 months. Fall is historically the shorter of the two strong selling seasons — spring is both the strongest and the longest, traditionally running from late January through late June. Since the downturn began, though, that window has compressed: spring now behaves more like a late-March-to-early-June market. Worth keeping in mind as we head into a fall season that’s already working with less runway than it used to have.
416 vs. 905:
The Latter Drags The FormerWe continue to believe housing in the 416 has found its floor. Condos are the exception worth watching — expect a plateau, with generic bachelor and one-bedroom units in the downtown core still having some room to dip further.
The 905 is a different story, and it’s the main drag on the GTA’s overall numbers. These bedroom communities took a real hit once employers — the province among them — pushed workers back to the office. The commute that used to be a non-issue is now a daily cost, and it’s weighing on demand. We expect the 905 to keep lagging and to keep pulling the broader GTA statistics down with it.
The Bigger Picture on Volume
We expect 2026 transaction volume to land close to last year’s total of just over 62,000 sales. For context, TRREB’s 10-year rolling average sits at roughly 90,000. We’re still well below trend — a reminder that “recovery” and “back to normal” are not the same conversation yet.
Bottom Line
Watch the next 2.5 months, not the last three. If prices hold and rates move the way we expect, the affordability window buyers have been waiting for may be open right now — not next spring.
Looking for more insights into Toronto real estate? Check out these related posts from my blog!
- Toronto Micro Markets
- Best Toronto Neighbourhoods For Families
- What’s Great About Living In Summerhill
A Word on Vancouver
For the last 15 years, Toronto realtors have looked west to Vancouver as a bellwether for where our own market was headed. This cycle, that relationship has flipped. Vancouver is now in tougher shape than we are: 8.4 months of inventory and average prices down 5.6%. Compare that to the GTA’s 4.8 months of inventory, and the difference in market character is stark. Our 4.8 months tilts only slightly toward buyers — Vancouver’s 8.4 is a full-fledged buyers’ market. Worth watching, if only because it’s the first time in over a decade that Toronto isn’t the one following Vancouver’s lead.
Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? I have answers! Reach me by email at ryan@ryanroberts.ca or call 416-925-9191.
