The Seemingly Fine Balance Of Affordability
As we head into the final month of 2025, we have seen a year of price decline—houses in a modest sense, and condos in a steeper sense. When we step back and look at where condo prices are today, we can draw a straight line back to 2019 pricing, and even into 2018. Erased is the pandemic value growth we saw. The FOMO that buyers experienced seems to be a thing of the past. As homes have corrected, these, for the most part, have not gone back in time as far, where the best of product in fine Toronto neighbourhoods can be found in the 2021 values.
Gone are the days when buyers would refresh their Realtor.ca search page throughout every day. Arrival of the days, when a discussion, consideration and review of all available products is not commonplace. The FOMO is gone. The question that lingers in buyers’ minds is, how low will this go?
As interest rates have dropped in the last year, and prices have rebounded from all high-water marks, there is a benefit for many to purchase now, especially move-up buyers. Fears about further declines exist, but many pundits and this team alike believe we are near the bottom of the correction. 2026 could see further declines, but we suspect those to be modest.
Rates are better than historical rates, and affordability has improved with price corrections. The question for buyers is, why wait at this point? Could it be that further affordability will exist? Perhaps. Will the home that you love become available at that time? Will anyone else be bidding on that house? How many bidders will like that rare gem? The reality is that when the average buyer feels more comfortable, the majority of would-be buyers will as well. Welcome the return of the bidding war.
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Looking for more insights into Toronto real estate? Check out these related posts from my blog!
- Where to Buy A Toronto Condo If You Don’t Want To Live Downtown
- What Are Must-Make Repairs Before You Sell Your Toronto Home?
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While we want to ensure that perspective is given here, we know that job security, global economics, and myriad factors could apply – at the end of the day, those folks going to own for five or more years will, in all likelihood, be well off and content in their decision to have purchased. In fact, more home buyers are holding for ten or more years. We suspect this will continue to increase, further substantiating the benefits of buying a home and holding for the long term.
The affordability of Toronto homes and condos is in a better range than we have seen in years, and in all likelihood, 2026 will prove to be even better. This projection should be balanced by the expectation that the latter half of 2026 will mark the beginning of an upward value trend. Should this prove out, we will only know, in hindsight, that the next year would in fact have been the bottom of the market and a great time to have purchased. Having some confidence today would go a long way to stepping forward into the move-up market and the overall buyer market.
Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? I have answers! Reach me by email at ryan@ryanroberts.ca or call 416-925-9191.
