Making Sense Of Our Market
As many are aware, 2025 was a slow year for transactions, with a dip across the value board. But it’s essential to delve deeper into the story behind the stats. Each month, the TRREB market watch stats are released, and the snapshot details the GTA numbers. Here’s the thing: it’s better than the National home value average differences, but GTA is not as relevant as the 905 vs. 416 numbers. Furthermore, localizing neighbourhood stats is better, and, to that point, separating condos from freehold is even more helpful.
All this to say is that the stats, while not great, only give us a high-level view. Therefore, it is understandable that one could miss the positive story, that the 416 freehold homes are faring pretty well, and condos are causing a sag in the average value of properties on MLS. But the condo story doesn’t reflect the strength of 2-bedroom units, let alone their even greater strength (similar to freehold) in Toronto’s more mature/gentrified neighbourhoods.
While January was bitterly cold and more snowy than we could have imagined, we are beginning to pick up some steam. While we do not expect a banner Spring market, we do see the makings of a freehold housing recovery. We expect the second half of 2026 to be far more competitive among buyers seeking houses.
Thinking about buying a home? Click here to browse my featured listings.
Looking for more insights into Toronto real estate? Check out these related posts from my blog!
- Where to Buy A Toronto Condo If You Don’t Want To Live Downtown
- What Are Must-Make Repairs Before You Sell Your Toronto Home?
- Is Rosedale A Family Neighbourhood?
We Are Keeping A Close Eye On 50,000 Condo Unit Completions In 2026
What is the effect of 50,000 unit completions in 2026?
Does this flood the “generic” condo market in the core?
20,000 of the 50,000 are either not sold or in default with the pre-sale buyer. How many more defaults will happen due to mortgage affordability?
Can the buyers afford their mortgage payments now that rates are much higher than when they purchased pre-construction 3-6 years ago?
How many units will go into the already saturated condo resale pool?
How many units will go into rental pools? Can the landlords afford the mortgage debt service? We suspect the rents will fall well short of the mortgage payments and other expenses for many landlords.
How much could the above effects elongate the condo price recovery?
Toronto Vacant Home Tax Declaration
Toronto’s Vacant Home Tax Declarations are due here. The city now allows calls to 311, and a drop-by desk at City Hall is available if you prefer an alternative to the website.
Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? I have answers! Reach me by email at ryan@ryanroberts.ca or call 416-925-9191.
