Focusing On What Matters & Discernment
We hope you had a wonderful end to 2025 and eagerly await all the joys and growth in 2026!
Now that 2026 has begun, as expected, there remains some uncertainty in geopolitics, the economy (micro and macro), and the real estate market. Until the dust can settle globally, there will be some level of uncertainty for us here in Canada. That doesn’t preclude us from opportunities, and the fact that life goes on. Focusing on family, friends, health and careers remains of utmost importance, no matter which way the wind is blowing.
As we look back on 2025, we can now officially say that there were 62,433 home sales on TRREB. That is in line with 1996’s sales numbers. We believe the number will increase this year, possibly reaching 70,000 sales. While this is an improvement, it remains well below the ten-year rolling average of slightly more than 90,000/year
What we discovered in the numbers is that, of the 70,000 Realtors, just over 17,000 of them did a single sale or more. Another way to look at this is that nearly 53,000 Realtors didn’t complete a sale in 2025. That is a major challenge for those impacted. While it isn’t our intent to highlight the negative, what we want to demonstrate is that there has been a major shift towards buyers and sellers seeking excellence in the marketplace. Top professionalism, experience, and capability to navigate challenging times. Many agents got their licences after the Great Financial Crisis of 08/09 and presumed that making a living would be easy. And for some, it was easy. But doing a deal or two a year may have been easy for a time, but it no longer is. Deals are far more complicated in terms of structure, time on market, pitfalls, and communication when many buyers lack a sense of urgency.
We highlight the above to underscore the importance of discernment and seeking the best advice available. Only with the wise application of these two points can one be confident that they are stepping forward in a manner that will serve them today and into the future.
No matter what 2026 has in store for us, we can be certain that good questions, wise advice, reflection and a patient approach will prove well. We do see improvements in the market coming as the year progresses. We are advising our clients that we are, in all likelihood, near the bottom, so when the right property comes to market (or off market for that matter), it may be wise to act and acquire that which you will hold and cherish for years to come.
Thinking about buying a home? Click here to browse my featured listings.
Looking for more insights into Toronto real estate? Check out these related posts from my blog!
- Where to Buy A Toronto Condo If You Don’t Want To Live Downtown
- What Are Must-Make Repairs Before You Sell Your Toronto Home?
- Is Rosedale A Family Neighbourhood?
We Are Keeping A Close Eye On 50,000 Condo Unit Completions In 2026
What is the effect of 50,000 unit completions in 2026?
Does this flood the “generic” condo market in the core?
20,000 of the 50,000 are either not sold or in default with the pre-sale buyer. How many more defaults will happen due to mortgage affordability?
Can the buyers afford their mortgage payments now that rates are much higher than when they purchased pre-construction 3-6 years ago?
How many units will go into the already saturated condo resale pool?
How many units will go into rental pools? Can the landlords afford the mortgage debt service? We suspect the rents will fall well short of the mortgage payments and other expenses for many landlords.
How much could the above effects elongate the condo price recovery?
Toronto Vacant Home Tax Declaration
Toronto’s Vacant Home Tax Declarations are due here. The city now allows calls to 311, and a drop-by desk at City Hall is available if you prefer an alternative to the website.
Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? I have answers! Reach me by email at ryan@ryanroberts.ca or call 416-925-9191.
