The Dog Days Of Summer
Why is our market slower in the summer?
Why do properties sell for less on average?
Why do people list in the summer?
August is the perennial dog days of summer for both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Toronto real estate market. It’s a slower market. Fewer listings come to market. Fewer listings sell. (Thankfully, the Blue Jays have picked up their game, and so has the August market activity recently.)
Houses that sell in the summer typically sell for less on average than in the spring and fall. The reason is that the market is built around the school year. Houses that sell in the summer are typically picked over, remaining after the spring market, and are, on average, lower quality and priced lower. That’s the lower percentage value we see in the statistics. Add in cottages and farmhouses, and it makes for a quiet city — and therefore less activity.
Interestingly, condos are less impacted by the school year. As one might imagine, fewer families live in condos, and fewer condo owners have cottages or other travel plans because of budget constraints.
Many people sell in the summer out of necessity more than anything else — divorce, job relocation, or simply because the garden shows better in summer. Others are caught in a pinch point created by another transaction (i.e., a purchase already in motion) and have to scramble to sell their home.
Looking for more insights into Toronto real estate? Check out these related posts from my blog!
- Toronto Micro Markets
- Best Toronto Neighbourhoods For Families
- What’s Great About Living In Summerhill
Real Estate Quick Takes:
- Remove the entire pandemic market, and 2026 has picked up where 2019 left off. Take 2020 through 2024 out of the equation, and market values are up across the GTA (Greater Toronto Area). The pandemic years were when money seemed to grow on trees, and people could get a variable mortgage at 1.89%, allowing them to take on large amounts of mortgage debt.
- The typical correction in Toronto runs roughly four years. We’re nearing the end of that cycle, and we expect an increase in both sales and value in the coming years.
- It looks like the condo market has hit its floor, as transactions have increased a great deal.
- Bank of Canada commentary suggests inflation is easing, GDP growth is expected to improve through 2027, and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026, creating a more stable environment for housing.
- We expect rates to stay where they are come September — the Bank of Canada will hold pat. If we see any rate movement in the next year and a half, we expect it to be upward, 25 basis points at a time, with the possibility of three or four increases.
- Is Toronto shifting to a more European-style real estate market, where purpose-built rentals become more prevalent, and home ownership is less common for future generations?
- CMHC projects modest improvements in GTA resale activity through 2027, while forecasting limited price growth and continued declines in new condo construction — reinforcing expectations of a slower, more balanced housing market rather than a rapid rebound.
- Toronto has become the third most expensive city in Canada to rent, behind North Vancouver and the City of Vancouver. North York follows us, then Burnaby and Coquitlam (both in the Vancouver mainland area).
- The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reports that, at the end of July, there were roughly 67,000 realtors registered — down from more than 74,000 in July 2023. The reason: 75% of realtors completed no transactions last year.
Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? I have answers! Reach me by email at ryan@ryanroberts.ca or call 416-925-9191.
