Toronto’s Micro-Market Success
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Toronto’s real estate market continues to perform inconsistently. While we are well into the spring market, we have not seen the typical monthly and weekly volume of new listings we have seen over the last 25 years. At this stage of 2026, we are projecting fewer sales than in 2025, which brings us nearly 30 years back to an era when the city of Toronto had half the population, and TRREB was just the city of Toronto, not including the surrounding areas. This is quite a predicament. As of today, we are projected to see slightly more than 57,000 transactions by the end of the year.
We have, however, seen some incredibly hot neighbourhoods that we are calling micro-markets: Riverdale, The Beaches, Roncesvalles, High Park, The Junction, and Leslieville. These areas are completely bucking the trend. It’s common to have offer nights with many offers, and the property sells well over asking price. Given the frothy competition, prices are not hitting unprecedented levels but are performing strongly.
The resale condo market remains challenging, except for units of substantial size (two bedrooms or more) and those located in central, wealthier neighbourhoods.
The ongoing story remains geopolitics and the effect on fixed rates, specifically due to the bond market’s unpredictability. While we expected a much stronger start to this real estate year, there are certainly signs of a freehold upswing in these micro-markets, which is expected to extend into other neighbourhoods in Toronto as well. We expect to see strength in the housing market in September and October.
The uptick in fixed rates is also a factor, and the government will need to keep a close eye on the bond markets and the overnight lending rate as geopolitical challenges persist, particularly regarding the knock-on effects of rising gas and diesel costs.
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Looking for more insights into Toronto real estate? Check out these related posts from my blog!
- Where to Buy A Toronto Condo If You Don’t Want To Live Downtown
- What Are Must-Make Repairs Before You Sell Your Toronto Home?
- Is Rosedale A Family Neighbourhood?
We Expected Mortgage Defaults
Throughout 2025 and 2026, there were to be over 300,000 mortgage renewals, and we had a high expectation of mortgage defaults. Interestingly enough, there have been very few. While there has been a slight uptick, it has not been a material issue or factor in mortgage financing.
The reason is the federal government’s decision to place a stress test on the initial mortgage. This fiscally conservative approach has been incredibly helpful in stabilizing mortgage defaults in our country.
Another factor leading to fewer than expected mortgage defaults is that the banks have been working with homeowners who have struggled to make payments by extending their amortization periods. The average amortization period has been extended by 16 months, thereby lowering short-term costs.
40 Years of Age
One interesting statistic we recently found is that the average Canadian first-time buyer is 40 years old. This is substantially higher than it was 25 years ago, when it was about 30 years old. This highlights the housing affordability issue in our country and south of the border. We mirror each other very closely in average age. The difference in the United States is that houses are cheaper and incomes are higher.
So, how are people under the age of 40 affording homes in our major cities? It’s the “Bank of Mom and Dad,” which is arguably Canada’s seventh-largest “bank.” Obviously, higher-income earners can save more and secure a mortgage on their own at an earlier age, but the “Bank of Mom and Dad” is certainly something we see on a very regular basis.
Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? I have answers! Reach me by email at ryan@ryanroberts.ca or call 416-925-9191.
